Determinants of Recidivism

Repeat offenders commit a disproportionate share of crimes. Societies aiming to reduce crime thus must not only prevent individuals from committing their first crime but also prevent known offenders from returning to crime. This report reviews the evidence related to how four broad factors impact recidivism or repeat offending: (i) the probability of getting caught, (ii) diversion from the criminal justice system and prison, (iii) prison, and (iv) post-prison environments. Given increasing concerns about crime and forecasted growth of Swedish prison populations, there is an active public debate in Sweden on how to handle the situation. Many of the topics discussed in the report and especially the effects of electronic monitoring, juvenile incarceration, longer sentences, and prison conditions are highly relevant to the current Swedish context. Thus, the goal of the report is to shed some light on this debate and highlight the channels through which the four factors can impact recidivism, the reasons why it is hard to identify a causal effect, and the approach and findings of the quasi-experimental research studying these issues. With this focus on causal evidence, the report can inform policy makers and authorities on the potential impacts on recidivism of reforms. The reports emphasis on causal evidence is especially relevant as Swedish authorities have an ambition for using an evidence-based approach to criminal justice policy. Randi Hjalmarsson is a professor of economics at the Department of Economics at the University of Gothenburg.