Working with the future : ideas and tools to govern uncertaintyUpplaga 1

To handle increasingly uncertain situations, we need to learn how to anticipate what is coming. Futures Studies have developed robust frameworks for working with possible futures, including the development of scenarios and visions able to guide decisions in the present. Measuring risks and understanding uncertainties, and distinguishing what is only complicated from what is actually complex; these are part and parcel of working with the future. This book presents the phases of a future exercise, and for each phase explains the tools and methods to be used. Military tactics, legacy systems, future laboratories in the classroom, and resilient strategies are fields where a new profession, that of the futurist, shows its strength. To become a futurist, however, we need to be able to leave the ordinary and see new opportunities for action.